tisdag, januari 17, 2006

Tariq Ali om Iraks framtid - Guardian 16 jan


Lögner och undertryckta sanningar har blivit vardagsmat i Väst

By year three of Iraq's occupation, for most western citizens the fact that they live in a world protractedd by lies, half-truths and suppressed facts has become part of everyday life.

Kommer irak att överleva eller splittras?

In Iraq, a preoccupation for many of the country's citizens, including some who initially supported the war, is whether their country will survive or whether the result of western recolonisation will soon be disintegration. A Hobbesian landscape today could lead to a tripartite division tomorrow.

Den gamla kända irakiska poeten hade en tro på den irakiska nationalismen

In the last half of the preceding century, the great Iraqi poet, Muhammad Mahdi al-Jawahiri, himself the son of a Shia cleric and born in the holy city of Najaf, could express his detachment from religious sectarianism and affirm his faith in an Iraqi nationalism:

Detta verkar idag vara mycket avlägset

ana al-Iraqu, lisani qalbuhu, wa dami furatuhu, wa kiyani minhu ashtaru (I am Iraq, her heart is my tongue, my blood her Euphrates, my very being from her branches formed). It seems a very long time ago.

USA är starkt beroende av Iran-shias

What lies ahead? The US occupation is heavily dependent on the de facto support of the Shia political parties, especially Sciri (the Supreme Council for the Revolution in Iraq), Tehran's instrument in Iraq.

Sistani ville i början ha ett enat Irak, men saker har förändrats

Ayatollah Sistani, who, soon after the fall of Baghdad, told Iraqis of every hue that he favoured an independent and united Iraq, may have meant it at the time, but events have moved on.


När han förhindrade (irakiska) alSadres shiauppror, då hindrade han också enigheten

When Sistani prevented Shia groups from waging their own struggle and persuaded Moqtada al-Sadr to cease resistance, he also dented the unity of the country.


En förenad motståndsrörelse från två flanker

A unified resistance fighting on two fronts could have led to a unified government later.

Unsurprisingly, Thomas Friedman, of the New York Times, has demanded that Sistani be awarded the Nobel peace prize.


Om de från början istället motsatt sig ockupationen skulle det hela kunna vara över

Had the Shia parties decided to resist the occupation, it would have been over a long time ago, if indeed it had taken place at all.


Men dessa shia gjorde i eget syfte klart att de inte tänkte motsätta en irakisk regimförändring, men detta var ett farligt spel

The clerics in power in Iran made clear to Washington that they would not oppose the overthrow of the Taliban or of Saddam Hussein. They did so for their own motives and in their own interests, but theirs was a dangerous game.


Hade inte motståndet skapat en förtroendekris för Bush och Blair

Had the Ba'athists and military nationalists not resisted, instead denying Bush and Blair the glory of which they dreamed and creating a crisis of confidence in Washington and London,


kunde regimförändring i Teheran ha kvarstått på USAs agenda, trots Irans USAsupport

regime change in Tehran might have remained on the agenda, despite Iranian support for the US.


Ironiskt nog omöjliggjorde motståndet detta och höga USAmilitärer vill nu dra sig ur

Ironically enough, it is the resistance in Iraq that has made any such adventure impossible in the medium term. The US army high command, overstretched in Iraq, is seriously divided on the war and there is little doubt that some senior figures in the Pentagon favour a rapid withdrawal for purely military reasons.


Kunde det tilltufsade Imperiet klara en politisk triumf, att bryta upp motståndsfästet Irak? Ja utan tvekan

Could the empire, stalemated militarily, pull off a political triumph? A break-up of Iraq, which besides its cousin Syria was the only state resisting US domination, would mean a victory of sorts. There should be no doubt on this score.


Kurdledarna har tjänat mest på ockupationen och fick pengar av USA för att kunna ha området som bas

The Iraqi group that has benefited the most from the occupation is the Kurdish tribal leadership. The Kurds received a great deal of funding for 12 years prior to the war, and US intelligence agencies utilised the region as a base to penetrate the rest of the country.


Kurderna dominerar armén och polisen samt politiken med en ultrafederalism och en egen etnisk rensning

The Kurds dominate the puppet army and police; they have determined the ultra-federal character of the constitution and make no secret of the fact that they favour an ethnic cleansing of Arabs and other non-Kurds in Kirkuk, including those born in the city.

En epoks förtryckta kan i nästa epok lätt bli förtryckare själva, vilket Israel visar

Oppressed minorities in one epoch can rapidly become oppressors in another as Israel continues to demonstrate to the world. The Kurdish leaders, with Kirkuk in their bag, are happy to become a western protectorate.


Om den religiöst påtvingade shiaenigheten i Irak kollapsar och detta är möjligt om stöd saknas från USAs trupper och flyg, kan en ny uppgörelse ev förhindra balkaniseringen av Irak

If the clerically enforced unity of the Shia groups collapses, and it could if denied the luxury of American troops and air support, a new deal might be possible to prevent the Balkanisation of Iraq.


Samma gäller om Teheran beslutar att ett oberoende Irak är i regionens intresse. Men ett dylikt starkt slut ligger ändå inte inom synhåll.

The same could happen if Tehran decides, that a genuinely independent Iraq is in the best interests of the region, but rational calculation has not always been the mullahs' strongest suite. A happy ending is not in sight.


Och oljan? Dagens modell kostar irakierna miljarder i förlorade intäkter medan de multinationella företagen skördar frukterna, med upp till 162% i avkastning

And the oil? The model being prepared at the moment will cost Iraq billions in lost revenues while global corporations reap the harvest. The contracts being prepared would provide them with returns of 42% to 162% in an industry where the minimum returns are in the region of 12%.


Medan oljan förblir statsegendom får utländska bolag koncessioner i Halliburtons favör.


While the oil will remain the legal property of the state, the production-sharing agreements (PSAs) will give the concessions to private companies. This too would be seen as a victory by Halliburton and its political patrons.


Så länge som den irakiska regeringen backar upp avtalen kan USA och britterna dra tillbaka sina trupper och utropa sin seger

As long as an Iraqi government backs the PSAs, the US and Britain could withdraw their troops and claim a victory.


Frihetens triumf återspeglas i oljekontrakten. Ytterst lite annat räknas. Men kan överenskommelsen upprätthållas utan dessa imperialistiska trupper på plats? Sannolikt inte. Grundproblemen kvarstår och kampen för oljan kan bli en utdragen historia

The triumph of freedom would be reflected in the oil agreement. After all, little else counts. But could such a deal be maintained indefinitely without the presence of imperial troops? Unlikely.


Oil has, in the past, revitalised nationalist movements and transformed politics in Iran and Iraq. Times are different today, but the basic problems remain, and the struggle for the oil could be a protracted one.

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